Declining cost-effectiveness of screening for disease. The case of gastric cancer in Japan.

We examined the cost-effectiveness of screening for gastric cancer in hypothetical cohorts of asymptomatic Japanese ages 40, 50, 60, and 70, followed for 10 years. Current screening recommendations in Japan are not optimal. Although indirect x-ray is the correct method, screening for gastric cancer may not be cost-effective for Japanese under the age of 50. Policymakers worldwide should monitor the changing incidence of disease as they consider and recommend screening policies.