Prediction of endurance running performance for middle-aged and older runners.

The purpose of this study was to develop regression equations that would sufficiently predict the endurance running performance (ERP) of middle-aged and older runners (n = 55, 43-79 years). Among many independent variables which were selected as possible predictors of the ERP, oxygen uptake corresponding to the lactate threshold (VO2@LT), or age was found to be the single best predictor. Some variables representing training habits correlated significantly but only moderately with the ERP. Linear multiple regression equations developed in this study were: V5km = 4.203 + 0.054X1 - 0.028X2 (r = 0.87) V5km = 4.436 + 0.045X1 - 0.033X2 + 0.005X3 (r = 0.89) V10km = 4.252 + 0.042X1 - 0.026X2 (r = 0.79) V10km = 4.371 + 0.037X1 - 0.031X2 + 0.005X3 (r = 0.82) VM = 3.207 + 0.048X1 - 0.022X2 (r = 0.91) VM = 3.707 + 0.038X1 - 0.031X2 + 0.005X3 (r = 0.93) where V5km, V10km and VM are the mean running velocity at 5 km, 10 km and marathon races, respectively, and X1 = VO2@LT (ml kg-1 min-1), X2 = age (year), and X3 = average running duration per workout (min). We suggest that the ERP of middle-aged and older runners can be predicted from a linear combination of VO2@LT and age or a combination of these variables plus average running duration per workout.