Testing the covarion hypothesis of molecular evolution.

The covarion hypothesis of molecular evolution states that the fixation of mutations may alter the probability that any given position will fix the next change. Tests of this hypothesis using the divergence of real sequences are compromised because models of rate variation among sites (e.g., the gamma version of the one-parameter equation) predict sequence divergence values similar to those for the covarion process. This study therefore focuses on the extent to which the varied and unvaried codons of two well-diverged taxa are the same, because fewer are expected by the covarion hypothesis than by the gamma model. The data for these tests are the protein sequences of Cu, Zn superoxide dismutase (SOD) for mammals and plants. Simulation analyses show that the covarion hypothesis makes better predictions about the frequencies of varied and unhit positions in common between these two taxa than does the gamma version of the one-parameter model. Furthermore, the analysis of SOD tertiary structure demonstrates that mammal and plant variabilities are distributed differently on the protein. These results support the conclusions that the variable and invariable codons of mammal and plant SODs are different and that the covarion model explains the evolution of this protein better than the gamma version of the one-parameter process. Unlike other models, the covarion hypothesis accounts for rate fluctuations among positions over time, which is an important parameter of molecular evolution.