A model for the control of Echinococcus multilocularis in France.

In some areas of France the prevalence of Echinococcus multilocularis in foxes is as high as 50%, whereas less than one in a thousand voles (principally Microtus arvalis) are infected. In these regions the control of rabies in foxes is achieved by using helicopters to spread bait containing oral vaccine in capsules. A mathematical model has been constructed in an attempt to determine if the addition of praziquantel to bait would be effective in eradicating E. multilocularis, or at least achieve a useful measure of control. It has been shown that the qualitative population dynamics of E. multilocularis are not affected by the detail of its epidemiology in the intermediate host population. The model is, however, sensitive to assumptions about the distribution and longevity of the adult worm in the definitive host. Given these assumptions, a method is provided that determines the feasibility of eradication conditional on the pre-control prevalence in foxes, or predicts the post-control prevalence if eradication is not feasible. If experiments could be designed to provide better information about the biological factors that determine the epidemiology of this parasite in the definitive host, a more reliable assessment of the feasibility of control would be achieved.