Biochemical models as early predictors of the etiology of acute pancreatitis.

In this study we observed the discriminative ability of five commonly measured laboratory tests to distinguish between gallstone- and non-gallstone-associated pancreatitis. We also assessed the ability of the lipase-amylase ratio to discriminate between alcohol- and non-alcohol-induced pancreatitis. One hundred sixty-two patients with acute pancreatitis were included in the study. Group A consisted of patients presenting to our hospital in 1988 and 1989. Group B consisted of patients presenting in 1992. Models developed using group A patients were validated using group B patients. For gallstone pancreatitis, AST (threshold value 80 IU/liter) alone and a three-factor model, AST, ALP and bilirubin (threshold values of 80 IU/liter, 115 IU/liter, and 15 mumol/liter, respectively) were the best predictors, correctly classifying at least 80% of cases in group A and B. A lipase-amylase ratio of two correctly classified only 48% of cases in group A and 54% in group B. We conclude that biochemical models are useful in predicting the presence of gallstone pancreatitis but not alcoholic pancreatitis.