The prevalence and risk factors associated with abusive or hazardous alcohol consumption in 16-year-olds.

This paper examines the prevalence of abusive or hazardous alcohol consumption at age 16 years and the risk factors associated with such behaviour using data from a longitudinal study of a birth cohort of 953 children. Drinking behaviour was assessed on the basis of self-report measures of the frequency of alcohol consumption, reports of the typical and largest amounts of alcohol consumed and the frequency of alcohol-related problems. These measures were combined using latent class analysis methods to identify a group of adolescents (9.3% of the sample) who were characterized by high levels of abusive or hazardous drinking behaviour. Analysis of the risk factors associated with abusive/hazardous drinking identified three factors which were predictive of this behaviour at age 16 years: gender (p < 0.001); the largest amount of alcohol consumed at age 14 years (p < 0.05); and the extent of affiliation with substance using peers (p < 0.001). Further analysis suggested that the effects of other social, familial and individual risk factors on alcohol abuse were mediated via their effect on early drinking behaviour or via their influences on peer affiliations in adolescence. A tentative model of the pathways to adolescent alcohol abuse is discussed.