Community risk indicators for dental caries in school children: an ecologic study.

A statewide survey of NC schoolchildren found wide variation in dental caries prevalence among sampled classrooms. This study examined factors associated with this variation using classrooms as a surrogate for the larger community, in order to identify community risk indicators (CRI). In all, 172 classrooms (3400 students) in Grades K-6 were available for analysis. Initially, 56 sociodemographic, environmental, health system, and clinical factors were evaluated for their association with caries prevalence (K-3: average dfs + DMFS; 4-6: average DMFS) using univariate and bivariate analyses. Of these, 21 factors met our criteria for evaluation using WLS multivariate regression. For Grades K-3 (n = 108), population density, parental education, and coastal residence were negatively associated with caries scores, while age, and medical and dental, Medicaid expenditures were positive. For Grades 4--6 (n = 64), age and fs:dfs ratio were positively associated with caries scores while population density, population:dentist ratio, and years of natural fluoride exposure were negative. CRIs for both models, when compared to individual models, explained a substantial portion of the variation in caries prevalence, 31% for Grades K-3 and 51% for Grades 4-6. Results suggest that a risk assessment model based on community rather than individual variables is feasible and further refinement may reveal factors useful in identifying high risk communities.