The PACE evaluation: initial findings.

As of mid-1994 there were nine replications of the On Lok model operating under dual capitation payments as sites in the Program of All-inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE). A tenth site had begun operating under capitation, but was unable to remain viable. The present descriptive study documents the growth and development of the first seven of these sites, all that had been operating under capitation during 1992. Comparisons among these sites and with On Lok are presented in the areas of organizational structure, client characteristics, approaches to case management, service delivery options, and financing. There is considerable variability in the implementation of the PACE model. Combined Medicare and Medicaid capitation monthly payments range from $2,147 to $5,973. These seven PACE sites (excluding On Lok) served a total of 888 current clients at the end of 1992, after a cumulative 136 months of experience under capitation. The very slow enrollment rates may imply that the target clients are less enthusiastic about this model than are its architects. The client selection process may suggest niche-marketing or skimming, but not the full representation of the nursing home population in their states. Given both the slow enrollment and the niche-marketing (the benevolent term) or skimming (the pejorative term) that has occurred, caution about the long-term viability of the PACE model may be warranted.