Dynamic model comparing the bionomics of two isolated Culex tarsalis (Diptera: Culicidae) populations: model development.

The population dynamics of Culex tarsalis in the Coachella and southern San Joaquin valleys of California were studied using Monte Carlo simulations. Multiple years of abundance data were averaged to extract a generalized seasonal pattern for each site. These patterns were used to establish qualitative goodness-of-fit criteria to assess model output and to evaluate the importance of model parameters in simulating mosquito population trends. The parameters associated with the degree of temperature and density dependency on larval mortality were found to be important components in determining whether or not the output was classified as having passed or failed on the basis of our criteria, whereas autogeny and the heterogeneity of developmental time were found not to be important.