Two pathways out of drinking problems without professional treatment.

This 3-year longitudinal study examined two recovery pathways among 135 problem drinking individuals who never received professional treatment. Almost half (48.3%) of those individuals for whom outcome could be clearly determined became moderate drinkers or stably abstinent. At baseline, individuals who subsequently became abstinent (n = 28) were of low socioeconomic status, had severe drinking problems, and believed their drinking was a very serious problem. Once they began their recovery, they relied heavily on Alcoholics Anonymous as a maintenance factor. In contrast, individuals who became moderate drinkers (n = 29) had higher socioeconomic status and more social support at baseline than did individuals who became abstinent or continued to have drinking problems. A logistic regression on baseline data showed that it was possible to predict which natural recovery pathway an individual drinker would follow. The implications of these findings for alcoholism treatment and policy are discussed.