Predicting cardiac morbidity based on risk factors and coronary angiographic findings.

A cohort of 189 men was followed up for 1 year after performance of coronary angiography and determination of risk factors to ascertain which risk factors or clinical and laboratory findings could aid in predicting the patients who would have a substantial cardiac morbid event. Data on clinical signs and symptoms, psychosocial assessments, angiographic findings and presence of standard risk factors for coronary artery disease were collected in each case. Twenty-five percent of the men experienced a substantial cardiac morbid event (hospitalization, myocardial infarction, resuscitation or death). With or without inclusion of the patients who underwent surgery, discriminant analysis equations were successful in predicting morbidity on the basis of risk factor data. For the whole sample such analysis was significant at p < 0.00005 and accurately predicting the fate of 78 percent of the subjects. With exclusion of the surgically treated patients, the discriminant analysis accurately predicted future morbidity 83 percent of the time (p < 0.0001). The following risk factors for increased morbidity were common to both analyses: severity of angina, history of myocardial infarction, family history of heart disease, fatigue and absence of type A behavior.