[Results of quantitative myocardial scintigraphy with thallium-201 at rest and after maximum exercise--critical analysis of predictive value and clinical application (author's transl)].

In 20 normal individuals and 60 patients with CAD, myocardial scintigraphy with thallium-201 was performed after maximum exercise and two hours later at rest. The evaluation of digitized scintigrams was performed quantitatively by means of a 14-halfsegment model. Using ROC analysis, sensitivity and specificity were estimated. Furthermore the predictive value of a thallium scintigram was evaluated by means of the bayesian theorem, comparing the data with coronary angiography and partly also with exercise ventriculography. At a specificity of 90%, sensitivity of scintigraphy for CAD was 97% in 34 patients with previous myocardial infarction and 85% in 26 patients without infarction. Sensitivity for the extent of CAD was 93% for 44 vessels, perfusing infarcted myocardium and 67% for 96 vessels, perfusing non-infarcted myocardium. Sensitivity decreased with increasing extent of CAD and was higher for Cx than for LAD. The predictive value of a positive or negative scintigram was analyzed for different prevalences of CAD. At a low prevalence, e.g. 5%, the predictive value of a pathological scintigram is only 32%, consequently thallium scintigraphy is not applicable as a general screening procedure. At a high prevalence, e.g. 90%, the predictive value of a normal scintigram is only 40%. Therefore thallium scintigraphy seems not to be able to differentiate whether a coronary artery stenosis is hemodynamically significant or not. This was in agreement with the data from exercise cineventriculography. A high predictive value of thallium scintigraphy of about 85% is obtained only in the case of a medium prevalence of CAD, e.g. in asymptomatic patients with pathological Ecg or in patients with atypical angina pectoris. An improvement of the predictive value of myocardial scintigraphy would require other radionuclides than thallium-201, to use higher activities and to allow Ecg-gated myocardial scintigraphy.