Detection and natural progression of early oesophageal carcinoma: preliminary communication.

Twenty-three cases of untreated early carcinoma of the oesophagus are described. The detection and observation on the natural progression of these early carcinomas were performed by means of abrasive cytology, barium oesophagography, and/or fibreoptic oesophagoscopy. Eleven cases had developed late carcinoma in a mean of 55.5 +/- 29.0 months after the initial detection of the disease, while in the remaining 12 cases the disease had maintained its early stage of progression for 74.4 +/- 27.3 months without developing into late carcinoma. Further, of the 23 patients, 18 had lived beyond 5 years, making a natural 5-year survival rate of 78.3%. The relatively long period of dormancy at the early stage of oesophageal carcinoma might thus influence the 5-year survival rate of this disease currently treated by surgery.