Carcinogenesis: a predictive structure-activity model.

A statistical structure-activity equation has been developed for the estimation of carcinogenic potential for chemicals that have not been subjected to carcinogenesis assays. This discriminant equation is based on substructural fragments and molecular weight obtained for 343 compounds. The data base used for the design of the equation was obtained from the monographs of the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The accuracy of classification for the carcinogens in the model is between 87 and 91%, and for noncarcinogens between 78 and 80% in the presence of between 5.5 and 10.2% of the compounds not being classifiable. The false negative rate ranges between 4 and 5%; the false positive rate is near 11%.