Changes in cholesterol and triglyceride as predictors of ischemic heart disease in men.

We examined the relation of longitudinal changes in cholesterol and triglyceride to the subsequent development of heart disease. The data were from 1437 participants of the Normative Aging Study, a prospective study of men from the Boston area who were free of ischemic heart disease on two examinations approximately 5 years apart. Forty-four had symptoms or ECG findings of ischemic heart disease after their second but before their third examination, a period of 3-5 years. The risk of heart disease was studied using a multiple logistic risk model that took into account smoking and other risk factors. Changes in cholesterol and triglyceride levels between Exams 1 and 2, when corrected for regression to the mean, were better predictors of heart disease incurred between Exams 2 and 3 than initial levels of cholesterol, triglyceride or systolic blood pressure. When two age groups (28-52 years and 53-85 years) were considered, changes were important predictors in each age group. These findings suggest the importance of monitoring lipid changes over time.