Prelude to Hopf bifurcation in an epidemic model: analysis of a characteristic equation associated with a nonlinear Volterra integral equation.

We discuss a simple deterministic model for the spread, in a closed population, of an infectious disease which confers only temporary immunity. The model leads to a nonlinear Volterra integral equation of convolution type. We are interested in the bifurcation of periodic solutions from a constant solution (the endemic state) as a certain parameter (the population size) is varied. Thus we are led to study a characteristic equation. Our main result gives a fairly detailed description (in terms of Fourier coefficients of the kernel) of the traffic of roots across the imaginary axis. As a corollary we obtain the following: if the period of immunity is longer than the preceding period of incubation and infectivity, then the endemic state is unstable for large population sizes and at least one periodic solution will originate.