Multivariate risk score for recurrence of cutaneous basal cell carcinomas.

Multiple logistic analysis relating prognostic factors to risk of recurrence was performed for 1,417 basal cell carcinomas treated from 1955 to 1969 at New York University. The overall five-year recurrence rates by therapy were as follows: curettage-electrodesiccation, 26.0% (197/758); x-ray therapy, 9.7% (40/412); and surgical excision, 9.3% (23/247). Results for each treatment subgroup indicated that increasing lesion diameter and location of the lesion on various sites of the head, especially the nose, were associated with an increased risk of recurrence, whereas lesion location on the neck, trunk, limbs, or genitalia was associated with a decreased risk of recurrence. Additional significant factors correlated with increased risk were as follows: among patients treated with x-irradiation, male sex, and, among those treated by curettage-electrodesiccation, prior therapy and increasing patient age.