Epidemiological models of poliomyelitis and measles and their application in the planning of immunization programmes.

This report describes the construction and application of epidemiological models of measles and poliomyelitis. In these models, epidemiological classes and their age structure have been based on the natural history of these diseases in the population aged 0 - 19 years. The flow of the population through the classes has been expressed as an equation system suitable for computer interpretation. The models have been used to simulate both the natural course of the diseases and the effect of various immunization schemes. The models were also used to explore prospects for control and eradication of these diseases with specific immunization programmes, and their relative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness are discussed.