Antigenic variation in trypanosomes: a computer analysis of variant order.

African trypanosomes can undergo antigenic variation and evade the host immune response. Whether the antigenic variants arise in an ordered sequence or randomly has been in dispute but has not been statistically tested. The coefficient of concordance (W), a statistic designed to detect similarities between sequences of objects, was applied to the literature data. The tendency towards a reproducible order of variants was strong, although in several of the studies the number of experimental animals was so low that no conclusions could be drawn. A computer model was used to determine whether this degree of order could arise with random generation of variants followed by selection. The model simulated a trypanosome clone with 90 possible variants, widely differing variant-specific growth rates, random variant origin and variant eradication by an anamnestic host immune response. Parameters varied were maximum parasitaemia, growth rate differential between 'fast' and 'slow' variants, and parasitologist ability to detect minor variants. Random generation and selection by growth rate alone could not produce the degree of variant orderliness reported in the literature. However, experiments with larger numbers of host animals and direct investigation of variant growth rates and competitive interactions are necessary before the random generation-selection hypothesis can be proven or disproven.