The development of clinical tuberculosis following infection with tubercle bacilli. 1. A theoretical model for the development of clinical tuberculosis following infection, linking from data on the risk of tuberculous infection and the incidence of clinical tuberculosis in the Netherlands.

Information on the risk of tuberculous infection in the Netherlands has been linked with information on the incidence of tuberculosis, in an attempt to estimate the risks of developing the disease following infection or reinfection. It was postulated that: (a) those with a recent primary infection had a characteristic risk of developing progressive primary tuberculosis; (b) those with a distant (i.e. not recent) primary infection and a recent reinfection had a characteristic risk of developing exogenous tuberculosis; and (c) those with a distant primary infection but no recent reinfection had a characteristic risk of developing endogenous tuberculosis. The information on the risk of tuberculous infection was used to estimate the size of the population in each of these infection classes for different age-groups and calendar years in the Netherlands. Using multiple regression to link these population figures with the information on tuberculosis incidence in the same age group and calendar year, it was possible to estimate the above risks of developing tuberculosis. For Netherlands males aged 15-69 years during the period 1951-70 the three risks of developing pulmonary tuberculosis were estimated to be: (a) 5.06 per cent annually (for 5 years) following primary infection; (b) 1.91 per cent annually (for 5 years) following reinfection; (c) 0.0253 per cent annually, after the first 5 years following primary infection, in the absence of reinfection. The corresponding (and significantly different) estimated annual risks of development of pulmonary tuberculosis for females were 5.85, 1.10 and 0.0020 per cent respectively. From these risks, it may be estimated that the degree of protection conferred by a distant primary infection, against pulmonary tuberculosis arising from a recent reinfection, was 63 per cent for males and 81 per cent for females. The estimated relative proportions of cases of progressive primary, exogenous and endogenous tuberculosis varied considerably with age and calendar year. Progressive primary tuberculosis was dominant at the younger ages, exogenous and endogenous tuberculosis at older ages. At these older ages, the great majority of cases in the Netherlands in the early 1950s appeared to be exogenous in origin, but by 1970, with the decrease in the risk of infection, the exogenous contribution had dwindled substantially, especially among males.