Natural history of chronic mitral insufficiency: relation of peak systolic pressure/end-systolic volume ratio to morbidity and mortality.

The ratio of peak systolic pressure to end-systolic volume (PSP/ESV) is a measure of contractility that is relatively independent of loading conditions. To define the relation of this index to the natural history of chronic mitral insufficiency, follow-up studies were performed in 76 patients. All had isolated mitral insufficiency and were followed up for an average of 48 months. None underwent surgery. Cardiac volumes, ejection fraction and PSP/ESV ratio were calculated and Cox multiple regression analyses were performed to determine the relation of functional status, ejection fraction and PSP/ESV ratio to morbidity and mortality. Twenty-three patients died during follow-up; in 70% of those who died, the PSP/ESV ratio was reduced below the 20th percentile. However, as an independent predictor of mortality, this ratio was less sensitive (p greater than 0.05) than ejection fraction (p less than 0.01). Similarly, functional status change was predicted more accurately by ejection fraction (p less than 0.01) than by the PSP/ESV ratio (p greater than 0.05). Thus, although a decreased PSP/ESV ratio was associated with a higher mortality rate, other clinical and laboratory variables were superior to this index for determining morbidity and mortality in patients with isolated mitral insufficiency.