Predicting recidivism among first admissions at Tennessee's state psychiatric hospitals.

Using data from computerized patient records, the authors attempted to identify characteristics of first admissions to state psychiatric facilities who would later become recidivists. In an examination of 22,062 first admissions to all state hospitals in Tennessee, they found six variables with significant ability to predict recidivism: age, delusional beliefs, assaultive acts, out-of-state residence, indigence, and living with parents. A risk profile that predicted future recidivism with statistical significance at all five Tennessee state hospitals was subsequently developed, but the predictive accuracy was too low for the profile to be clinically useful. The authors believe the benefits of early identification of patients at risk justify further research.