Predictability of the progression of chronic renal failure.

The progression of chronic renal failure has been claimed to be predictable by means of mathematical models. The present study assesses, in 110 adult patients, the prediction error caused by the application of these models. The study shows that the prediction error has a wide range, which indicates that these models should be used with caution for prediction purposes in individual patients. Improvements of the models are proposed, and a new approach is demonstrated.