Omaha childhood blood lead and environmental lead: a linear total exposure model.

The majority of experimental and population studies of blood lead (PbB) and environmental lead, including the Omaha study, have utilized the Goldsmith-Hexter log-log or power function model. Comparison was made of the log-log model and a linear model of total exposure to describe the Omaha Study of 1074 PbBs from children ages 1-18 years as related to air (PbA), soil (PbS), and housedust (PbHD) lead. The data fit of the linear model was statistically equivalent to the power model and the predicted curves were biologically more plausible. The linear model avoids the mathematical limitations of the power model which predicts PbB zero at PbA zero. From the Omaha data, this model, ln PbB = ln (beta 0 + B1 PbA + B2 PbS + beta 3 PbHD) predicts that PbB increases 1.92 micrograms/dl as PbA increases 1.0 microgram/m3. Since PbS and PbHD increase with PbA, however, the increases in total exposure predict a PbB increase of 4-5 micrograms/dl as PbA increases 1.0 microgram/m3.