Comparison of clinical and treadmill variables for the prediction of outcome after myocardial infarction.

To assess the relative prognostic merits of 15 clinical and 10 predischarge exercise test variables, 226 patients who had sustained an acute myocardial infarction were studied. A submaximal treadmill test was performed on 205 patients to a mean work load of 5.7 +/- 2.9 METS. Testing was performed an average of 11.7 (range 6 to 33) days after myocardial infarction. During the first year of observation, major cardiac events were noted in 33 patients (16%), unstable angina in 7 (3.4%), recurrent myocardial infarction in 14 (6.8%) and death in 12 patients (5.9%). Cardiac mortality correlated with mean peak serum creatine kinase (CK) (p less than 0.05), history of previous myocardial infarction (p less than 0.01) and ST segment depression at rest (p less than 0.01). The only exercise variable that correlated with cardiac mortality was poor exercise endurance (p less than 0.05). Multivariate risk stratification of clinical and treadmill variables from these 205 patients using linear discriminant analysis produced a function that correctly classified 95% of those who were event-free and 80% of those who died. The first four discriminant variables that contributed independent information for the prediction of cardiac mortality were: 1) ST segment depression at rest; 2) CK greater than 1,280 IU/liter; 3) exercise duration less than 3 minutes; and 4) a history of previous myocardial infarction. ST segment depression on the predischarge treadmill test did not predict any event, nor did it improve the predictive accuracy of the clinical variables. It is concluded that a history of previous myocardial infarction and ST segment depression on the rest electrocardiogram indicate a poor prognosis after acute myocardial infarction. Poor endurance is the only exercise variable that suggests a future cardiac event. Prognosis after acute myocardial infarction is more accurately predicted by these clinical data than by variables derived from the predischarge treadmill test.