Mutation rates for unbalanced Robertsonian translocations associated with Down syndrome. Evidence for a temporal change in New York State live births 1968--1977.

The mutation rate for translocation Down syndrome was investigated for New York State live births for each of the years 1968--1977 using data from the New York State Chromosome Registry. The overall rate was 2.5 X 10(-5) per gamete (1.4 X 10(-5) for G/21 and 1.0 X 10(-5) for D/21 rearrangements), about 20% higher than rates previously reported by two other studies. For the first 5-year period, 1968--1972, the rate was 1.8 X 10(-5), and for the second 5-year period, 3.1 X 10(-5); there was an abrupt change in 1973 and 1974 to rates more than twice that in the 3 preceding years. These rates were derived by applying completeness estimates for all cases of Down syndrome, mostly 47,trisomy 21, in the jurisdiction to cases with translocation Down syndrome mutations. If completeness corrections are ignored and only the minimum boundaries of rates are considered, however, the increase in 1973 and 1974 was even greater compared with the previous 3 years. The trends, if not attributable to an undetected artifact, may have been caused by an increased frequency of mutant zygotes and/or enhanced intrauterine survival of mutant translocations.