Meningococcal meningitis in CSR: a preepidemic situation?

Meningococcal meningitis has become a problem in many European countries, with epidemics occurring during the past 10-15 years. There have also been outbreaks in some non-European countries. The latest meningococcal meningitis epidemic recorded in the CSR (Czech Socialist Republic) occurred in 1953, with the morbidity reaching 14.8 per 100 000 population. After the mid 1950's there was a gradual decline in morbidity, the lowest value (0.3 per 100 000 population) being reached in 1974. Since 1975 there has been a continual rise in morbidity, the value notified for 1982 was 1.2 per 100 000 population. An analysis of the epidemiological situation in meningococcal meningitis in CSR for the past 30 years was performed. Different indicators of the onset of epidemics were evaluated. Shift in the age distribution of patients was found to be the most valuable sign of changing epidemiological situtation. An attempt was made to prognosticate mathematically its further development. The analysis of the epidemiological data suggests that CSR is in a preepidemic situation. This finding is all the more important because a change has been found in the serogroup and serotype patterns of Neisseria meningitidis strains isolated from cerebrospinal fluid.