Thirty years on: examination performance and career success of the 1950-1 intake of Cambridge medical students.

The relation between preclinical tripos and clinical examination results and subsequent career success of 188 medical graduates of Cambridge University was measured using five indicators of success. A generally positive relation was found, but this was not specific enough to make accurate individual predictions. Present levels of appointment were more closely related to clinical than preclinical results. No support was found for the local assertion that "2.1s" do better than "firsts" in clinical medicine. Since undergraduate examination results seem to be inaccurate predictors of later performance they should not be used as the principal evidence in making selection decisions.