Mathematical and statistical aids to evaluate data from renal patients.

The monitoring of renal patients and the making of many decisions during their management involves consideration of sequences of numerical data. Renal function results after renal transplantation were used as an example of how graphical presentations, simple mathematical transforms, statistical evaluation and adjustments to the data, to take into account other biological and technical sources of error, can all contribute to better understanding. Experience with a statistical technique, the 4-state Kalman filter not often used in the biological sciences, was summarized and its use suggested as a method to quantitate some traditionally subjective decisions about individual patients, for example, the onset of allograft rejection. The method has identified in retrospect and in prospect events after transplantation earlier than did experienced clinicians. Other statistical techniques to set the sensitivity and specificity of monitoring methods, to detect change points and to quantitate rhythmic sequences of clinical data were discussed, with examples, and with increasing access to computers, these can be used more easily by nephrologists, transplant surgeons, and others.