The cold thyroid nodule: an analysis of diagnostic and therapeutic options.

We applied decision analysis to the controversy over the management of the solitary nonfunctioning thyroid nodule. Three standard management plans were considered: immediate subtotal thyroidectomy; a six month trial of thyroid suppression with L-thyroxine, with non-suppressible lesions being removed surgically; and aspiration cytology followed by surgery or thyroid suppression based on the cytologic examination. The literature formed the basis for quantitative assumptions of the analysis, including the consequences of thyroidectomy, the probability of malignancy, the types and prognoses of cancers found at operation, the likelihood of successful suppression adn relapse, and the possible results of aspiration cytology. We used Bayes' rule to revise the probability of cancer on the basis of cytological results. The relative worths of the 59 possible diagnostic and therapeutic outcomes were expressed as quality-adjusted life expectancies. The expected utility of each management plan was determined by "folding back" the decision tree. Although we found that each possible approach yielded a quality-adjusted life expectancy very close to that of the healthy population, aspiration biopsy with cytologic examination appeared slightly superior. Extensive sensitivity analyses demonstrated that either aspiration biopsy or immediate thyroid suppression was the treatment of choice over a wide range of assumptions, although in no case did the benefit exceed 1 year of life. We conclude that all therapies for cold thyroid nodule are essentially equal, viewed in terms of mortality and morbidity. The decision to operate, suppress or aspirate is thus a " tossup ", dependent in the individual case upon such subjective factors as psychological disutility , relative cost, and attitudes toward operative risk and long-term medical therapy. The controversy concerning the "best" management of the cold thyroid nodule is an illusion: quantitative analysis shows the futility of pursuing the debate any further.