Survey approach to estimating demand for physician assistants.

A national probability sample of physicians was surveyed by mail to provide an estimate of the number of job openings for physician assistants (PAs). The responses were used to undertake an empirical analysis of the factors which influence a physician's decision to hire a PA. Estimates were adjusted to account for survey non-response. This approach may be useful for estimating the employment demand for other types of health workers employed by physicians. It was found that in 1976 there was an unconditional demand for 20,338 PAs and a further conditional demand for 3417 PAs. This contrasts sharply with the fact that as a march 1977 only 4845 PAs had graduated from training programs. Approximately 53% of this employment demand was from physicians in the primary care specialties (general/family practice. Obstetrics/gynecology, internal medicine, and pediatrics). Of note was the finding that physicians expected to pay PAs a lower salary than was being received in the market place. Further, 27% of physicians not willing to hire PAs indicated lack of knowledge about them as the main reason for not hiring.