Predicting minority student performance in the first medical school year.

Impressions and anecdotal evidence have raised concerns that traditional cognitive measures of past performance may not be predictive of the performance among minority students in medical school. This study assessed the relationship between nine objective measures and actual first year academic performance for cohorts of minority students enrolled in a single medical school between 1973 and 1976.The findings support previous impressions that objective measures together explain less than half of the variance in academic performance. Furthermore, the cumulative undergraduate college average and the competitiveness of the undergraduate college are consistently the strongest predictors of academic performance among this group.