Cardiovascular risk factors and obesity: are baseline levels of blood pressure, glucose, cholesterol and uric acid elevated prior to weight gain?

The increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality experienced by the obese may be partially mediated through alterations induced in other associated risk factors. The attribution of this cardiovascular risk to obesity presumes that levels of those risk factors are not elevated independently of, or prior to, weight gain. We therefore examined baseline levels of blood pressure, glucose, cholesterol, and uric acid within age and sex specific strata of a population of 4015 individuals followed an average of 15 years to determine if an increasing level of fatness (weight/height 2) at follow-up was associated with elevation of other risk factors at baseline. After controlling for baseline fatness we were unable to demonstrate any consistent relationship between future fatness and baseline elevation of any of the factors. The magnitude of the partial correlation coefficients for those age 6-24 or 25-65 years at baseline were less than 0.11 for all of the risk factors. While a metabolic predisposition may link obesity to alterations of other risk factors it appears unlikely that their elevation commonly precedes weight gain. A pre-existing elevation of risk factors has not resulted in the misattribution of cardiovascular risk to obesity.