Risk factors and the incidence of hypertension in black physicians: the Meharry Cohort Study.

A prospective longitudinal study of black medical students was conducted to determine the predictive value of hypertension precursors. Follow-up examinations, averaging 22.5 years later, were performed on 341 subjects (78.8%); 25 (5.8%) additional subjects were identified as dead out of 433 original participants. Results are reported on 313 reexamined men. A remarkable 43.8% of the physicians had elevated blood pressure higher than 140/90 mm Hg or gave a history of hypertension and treatment. Correlation coefficients, quintile distributions, and regressions all confirmed the ability of baseline SBP and DBP to predict their respective pressures on follow-up examination. Discriminant function tests yielded baseline SBP, DBP, smoking, and parental history of stroke or hypertension to be the most significant precursors distinguishing hypertensive from normotensive groups, and the model correctly classified 69.7% of the subjects. Baseline cholesterol and Quetelet index levels did not reach statistical significance. The cold pressor test was not predictive but interim weight gain was highly significant. Results are discussed in relation to comparable studies on white populations.