Model building on the basis of Dutch cervical cancer screening data.

A mass screening programme for cervical cancer is in progress in three pilot regions in The Netherlands. All women living in these regions aged 35-53 are invited to undergo screening at three-year intervals. The MISCAN simulation model was developed for the analysis and optimization of screening programmes. In this paper the model-based approach to evaluation is first outlined and then illustrated by analysing data from the first two screening rounds in the pilot regions. This analysis resulted in a rather restricted range of data-compatible assumptions for the mean duration of preclinical disease (14-19 yr) and the frequency of spontaneous regression of preinvasive lesions (45-65%), as well as a rather wide sensitivity range for the Pap smear (50-90%). These preliminary findings are compared with those of a previous MISCAN analysis of cervical cancer screening in British Columbia. On the basis of an assumed 18-yr duration, 50% regression and 70% sensitivity, a number of screening policies relating to the same age ranges but with different intervals are compared. Both the analysis and the policy comparisons are preliminary, but the findings are nevertheless reasonable and consistent with those of previous studies. A more complete MISCAN-based analysis of the Dutch screening programme and subsequent optimization of screening policies will be possible when further results become available and a cost-effectiveness analysis procedure has been incorporated into the MISCAN programme.