Pursuing longevity: delay vs elimination of degenerative diseases.

Using a new model which allows for projection of mortality change resulting from preventive health care measures, prospective changes in longevity for the resident United States population in 1978 were compared with projections of longevity gains occurring under a standard single cause-elimination model. Results indicate that equal or greater gains accrue from the prevention or delay of several major degenerative diseases, than from the complete elimination of some single major degenerative diseases. Observed declines in mortality from 1960 to 1978 have resulted in gains in longevity equivalent to the successful elimination of some major degenerative diseases.