The probability of exclusion of ancestries based on genetic observations.

One can extend exclusion of ancestry beyond paternity: for example, to grandparents or other types of ancestors. Naturally, the probability of successful exclusion is smaller for more remote ancestors. The case that we have especially considered is that of exclusion on the basis of grandparents, of which there have been recent applications. A method of calculating the average probability of exclusion, P, in such situations is developed and applied to different genetic systems including DNA polymorphisms available today. As usual, multiallelic genes like HLA are by far the most informative, but a substantial number of other genes should also be tested to reach a reasonable probability of exclusion. The effect of inbreeding on P is demonstrated to be negligible.