Longitudinal studies of drug abuse in a fifteen-year-old population. 5. Prognostic factors.

In an attempt to identify prognostic factors, non-drug users and abusers in the Gothenburg year cohort of 1953 were compared with reference to background data. Individuals with chronic abuse differed most from the "normal" group. Prognostic factors for drug abuse were: member of a multiproblem family, child psychiatric care, contact with the Social Welfare Administration at an early age, truancy, placement in special class, premature drop-out from school, admitted high-frequency drug use in a school questionnaire, for boys early registration for crimes and for girls nervous complaints. The results indicate the necessity of earlier and more effective prevention.