An analysis of vascular surgical manpower requirements and vascular surgical rates in the United States.

Inherent in any analysis of vascular surgical manpower must be accurate data on surgical rates and numbers of surgeons who perform vascular operations. For in-depth analysis of age-sex standardized vascular operative rates from 1979 to 1984 and a determination of current manpower levels, data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and the American Board of Surgery (ABS) were reviewed. During 1979 to 1984, total vascular surgical procedures increased 50%. In 1983 such operations comprised 11% of all general surgical procedures and 3% of all operations performed in this country. In 1983, 95,000 carotid endarterectomies, 74,000 peripheral bypasses, were performed. Through November 1984, among approximately 1600 surgeons who had applied to take the General Vascular Surgery Examination, 676 took the examination and 545 passed. What percentage of all vascular surgeons these 1600 represent is unknown. Consequently, what percentage of the total vascular operative load their own experiences represent is uncertain. As of May 1985, the Residency Review Committee for General Surgery had approved 42 fellowship positions in 29 vascular training programs. How these training figures will change to meet optimal manpower requirements remains undefined. Although data concerning operative rates have become more precise, forecasting manpower needs will be met with skepticism because of unknown current and future numbers of vascular surgeons and their average caseloads. Regardless of these uncertainties, vascular surgeons, program directors, and health analysts should be aware of such information because until we know how many vascular surgeons are necessary to provide optimal care, training and certification can not rationally evolve.