Observations on the application of EPI cluster survey methods for estimating disease incidence.

The present study attempted to assess the incidence of target diseases of the Expanded Programme on Immunization (poliomyelitis, tetanus, measles, pertussis, neonatal tetanus, diphtheria), using cluster samples and a household interview form. The results suggest that this method can indeed serve to estimate the incidence of these diseases with reasonable precision and may also be used to demonstrate reduction in incidence for the more common diseases. Analysis of 37 surveys for poliomyelitis and neonatal tetanus in India revealed a relative uniformity in the design effect (i.e., the ratio of the variance for the cluster estimate to the variance for the binomial estimate) for diseases with low incidence and prevalence. Diseases with higher prevalence tend to have a larger design effect, which may be indicative of the epidemic and "clustered" nature of the disease. A large design effect, therefore, does not necessarily indicate a need for a larger sample size, particularly if precision is acceptable. There is no one single design that is ideal for all surveys of disease incidence and decisions must be made in the light of local conditions and available resources.