Prediction of outcome following acute variceal haemorrhage.

In order to identify factors predicting survival following acute variceal haemorrhage, data were collected prospectively from 100 admissions in 70 patients managed by a standard policy employing oesophageal tamponade, injection sclerotherapy and, if necessary, oesophageal transection. Of the ten predictive factors identified by univariate analysis, only prothrombin ratio, serum creatinine and the presence of encephalopathy on admission were shown by stepwise logistic regression to have independent significance. The derived regression equation allowed clearer identification than conventional scoring systems of high and low risk groups and successfully predicted outcome in 90 per cent of admissions.