Utilization prediction for helicopter emergency medical services.

As the number of helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) programs continues to expand rapidly, the need for an accurate, readily obtainable, inexpensive method of utilization prediction for these services has become apparent. Accurate volume and case mix prediction for these services are increasingly important as financial constraints become more severe. All previous methods of utilization prediction based on experiences of individual services or accident statistics have been either inaccurate, costly, or difficult to obtain in a relatively short period of time. Prediction of HEMS utilization requires consideration of many significant, simultaneous factors, in addition to patient needs based on population statistics. Through use of a survey of all hospital-based helicopter emergency service programs and published census data, this study analyzed factors relating to helicopter program volume and case mix, providing insight as to why previous methods utilizing total population were inaccurate. A more accurate yet simple and inexpensive method of utilization prediction for HEMS was developed.