Prediction of airway responsiveness to allergen from skin sensitivity to allergen and airway responsiveness to histamine.

Previous data have indicated that airway responsiveness to allergen, expressed as the provocation concentration causing a 20% FEV1 fall (PC20), was dependent on nonallergic airway responsiveness (histamine PC20) and sensitivity to allergen (skin sensitivity or end-point titration). From retrospective data in 24 subjects, we developed a formula to predict allergen PC20 and examined its accuracy prospectively in 26 new subjects undergoing allergen inhalation test with doubling allergen concentrations. Allergen PC20 (APC20) was predicted from histamine PC20 (HPC20) and skin sensitivity (SS) by the formula: Log10 (APC20) = 0.69 Log10 (HPC20 X SS) + 0.11 (r = 0.85). Allergen PC20 was accurately predicted in 6, and overestimated or underestimated by 1 doubling concentration in 11, by 2 concentrations in 6, by 3 concentrations in 3, and by greater than 3 concentrations in none. From the total of 50 subjects, a new relationship was developed: Log10 (APC10) = 0.68 log10 (HPC20 X SS) (r = 0.82) from which 46 of 50 (92%) of allergen PC20 values fall within 2 doubling concentrations of the regression line (and all within 3). Early airway responsiveness to a given allergen can be predicted within a +/- 8-fold range, which is better than some investigator's test reproducibility of +/- 1 log (10-fold). Allergen inhalation tests to determine early asthmatic responsiveness to different IgE-mediated allergens can probably be replaced by the simpler and safer determinations of allergen sensitivity (SS, RAST) and histamine or methacholine airway responsiveness.