Peripheral arterial disease--natural outcome.

Three hundred and twelve patients with peripheral arterial disease were followed up for 8 3/4 years or more (maximum 11 3/4 years) to assess the natural history of the disease and factors determining its outcome. Of the 312 patients, 188 (69%) died during the follow-up, 68% of the deaths having cardiovascular causes. The 10-year relative cumulative survival rate was 0.61 for males and 0.48 for females. The role of smoking as a risk factor could not be analysed without bias. In addition to known risk factors diabetes mellitus, cerebrovascular disease and coronary heart disease, the degree of peripheral arterial disease itself also proved to be a risk factor among men. The expected life lost for men with intermittent claudication was 20%, but 44.3% for men with advanced lower limb ischaemia (p less than 0.01). This difference could not be explained by the well-known association of advanced ischaemia and diabetes mellitus. The present results therefore suggest that the state of advanced ischaemia indicates larger involvement of the whole of the arterial tree and predicts fatal cardiovascular events among these patients.