The prediction of future health in healthy middle-aged men.

Two cohorts of men aged 49-59 at entry, representing cluster samples of two rural areas in Northern and Central Italy, for a total of 1712 subjects have been followed-up for 20 years within an epidemiological study originally designed for cardiovascular disease. After 20 years, only 41 men have been judged to have remained substancially healthy throughout the observation period, i.e. free from a number of major diseases. Univariate and multivariate analyses trying to predict the maintenance of health status showed that among 21 selected characteristics only the following one had a significant power: age, cigarette smoking (adverse effect) and vital capacity (favourable effect). A minor role was also played by the body mass index (adverse effect) and forced expiratory volume (favourable effect). Those who did not remain healthy exibited a greater increase in blood pressure and body mass index.