Beyond the concept of risk homeostasis: suggestions for research and application towards the prevention of accidents and lifestyle-related disease.

On the assumption that risk homeostasis theory is a valid conceptualization of the process determining the aggregate loss due to traffic accidents per time unit of road-user exposure in a given jurisdiction, a general perspective for future research and application in the area of road accidents, accidents in other domains as well as in the area of lifestyle-dependent ill-health has been developed. It is proposed that further work be undertaken to phrase the theory in a mathematical format, to identify the processes mediating between input and output variables and to establish its potential for assisting in the progress towards a more general theory of human conduct in the face of uncertainty. Several implications for policies promoting safety and health have been worked out in the context of a preventative strategy called "expectationism" which aims to achieve these goals through interventions that enhance people's desire to be safe and healthy. Finally, various questions regarding the biological, behavioural and economic functionality of risk-taking have been raised and the need for clarification of the values of various safety goals and of the means to their end has been pointed out.