Predictors of eventual end stage renal disease in children with posterior urethral valves.

We reviewed the long-term outcome of 25 boys born with posterior urethral valves who were followed longitudinally. Patient age at diagnosis varied from 7 months intrauterine to 7 years postnatal, and the mean duration of followup was 9 years. Of the children 40 per cent had retardation of growth by the end of the followup period and 44 per cent had end stage renal disease. Of the various factors delay in diagnosis and the association of persistent vesicoureteral reflux seem to predict eventual end stage status. In 18 of 25 children the diagnosis of posterior urethral valves was made before they were 2 years old. Only 5 of these children have reached end stage disease status. In comparison, of 7 children whose diagnosis was delayed beyond 2 years 6 have end stage disease (p less than 0.01). Similarly, 7 of 9 children with persistent reflux had end stage disease compared to 4 of 16 who did not have persistent reflux (p less than 0.01). Since end stage renal disease status was reached at widely varying intervals a prolonged followup of children with this anomaly is necessary.