[Multidimensional analysis by Cox's model of the survival of patients with alcoholic cirrhosis].

A group of 249 patients with alcoholic cirrhosis was prospectively studied in order to assess the prognostic value of 23 clinical and biochemical factors. Methods included the Cox model completed with validation by assessing the proportionality and by comparing the estimated and observed results, a study of the influence on the results of the truncated data and the factors with non normal distribution, and an expression of the results using predictive values. Results showed that encephalopathy, age, serum albumin and total bilirubin concentrations and serum gamma glutamyl transpeptidase activity had an independent prognostic value. The Cox model was validated and results showed that taking into account the truncated data and the non normal distribution modified the results. An index using the five independent prognostic factors had a good negative predictive value, permitting to predict, in one third of the patients, survival i. e. which patient had a probability to be alive at two years greater than 90 p. 100.