The distribution of type I (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus by age, sex, secular trend, seasonality, time clusters, and space-time clusters: evidence from Montreal, 1971-1983.

The etiology of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus remains obscure. In an attempt to clarify some aspects of the epidemiology, including its compatibility with an acute infectious process, the authors undertook in-depth analyses of childhood cases accumulated in a population-based register in Montreal during the period from 1971-1983. Incidence rates increased with age until puberty, at which point they plateaued and decreased. There was no overall difference in incidence between males and females; however, the rate for females peaked approximately two years before the rate for males. While there was some variation over time, there was no evidence of a long-term trend, nor was the yearly variation impressive in magnitude. The findings further indicate that the disease is not characterized by explosive outbreaks. There was slight seasonality, with a 28% higher rate of onset in fall and winter than in spring and summer. There was some evidence of space-time clustering in 1971-1973, but not thereafter. Taken as a whole, these findings do not support the hypothesis that a significant portion of insulin-dependent diabetes is caused by an acute infectious process.