Ingeborg Waernbaum1, Torbjörn Lind2, Anna Möllsten2, Gisela Dahlquist2. 1. Department of Statistics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden. ingeborg.waernbaum@statistik.uu.se. 2. Department of Clinical Science, Paediatrics, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
Abstract
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: During the 1980s and 1990s, the incidence of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes more than doubled in Sweden, followed by a plateau. In the present 40 year follow-up, we investigated if the incidence remained stable and whether this could be explained by increased migration from countries reporting lower incidences. METHODS: We used 23,143 incident cases of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes reported between 1978 and 2019 to the nationwide, population-based Swedish Childhood Diabetes Registry and population data from Statistics Sweden. Generalised additive models and ANOVA were applied to analyse the effects of onset age, sex, time trends and parental country of birth and interaction effects between these factors. RESULTS: The flattening of the incidence increase seems to remain over the period 2005-2019. When comparing the incidence of type 1 diabetes for all children in Sweden with that for children with both parents born in Sweden, the trends were parallel but at a higher level for the latter. A comparison of the incidence trends between individuals with Swedish backgrounds (high diabetes trait) and Asian backgrounds (low diabetes trait) showed that the Asian subpopulation had a stable increase in incidence over time. CONCLUSIONS/ INTERPRETATION: In Sweden, the increase in incidence of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes in the late 20th century has been approaching a more stable albeit high level over the last two decades. Increased immigration from countries with lower incidences of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes does not provide a complete explanation for the observed levelling off.
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: During the 1980s and 1990s, the incidence of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes more than doubled in Sweden, followed by a plateau. In the present 40 year follow-up, we investigated if the incidence remained stable and whether this could be explained by increased migration from countries reporting lower incidences. METHODS: We used 23,143 incident cases of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes reported between 1978 and 2019 to the nationwide, population-based Swedish Childhood Diabetes Registry and population data from Statistics Sweden. Generalised additive models and ANOVA were applied to analyse the effects of onset age, sex, time trends and parental country of birth and interaction effects between these factors. RESULTS: The flattening of the incidence increase seems to remain over the period 2005-2019. When comparing the incidence of type 1 diabetes for all children in Sweden with that for children with both parents born in Sweden, the trends were parallel but at a higher level for the latter. A comparison of the incidence trends between individuals with Swedish backgrounds (high diabetes trait) and Asian backgrounds (low diabetes trait) showed that the Asian subpopulation had a stable increase in incidence over time. CONCLUSIONS/ INTERPRETATION: In Sweden, the increase in incidence of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes in the late 20th century has been approaching a more stable albeit high level over the last two decades. Increased immigration from countries with lower incidences of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes does not provide a complete explanation for the observed levelling off.
Authors: Christopher C Patterson; Suvi Karuranga; Paraskevi Salpea; Pouya Saeedi; Gisela Dahlquist; Gyula Soltesz; Graham D Ogle Journal: Diabetes Res Clin Pract Date: 2019-09-10 Impact factor: 5.602
Authors: Christopher C Patterson; Valma Harjutsalo; Joachim Rosenbauer; Andreas Neu; Ondrej Cinek; Torild Skrivarhaug; Birgit Rami-Merhar; Gyula Soltesz; Jannet Svensson; Roger C Parslow; Conxa Castell; Eugen J Schoenle; Polly J Bingley; Gisela Dahlquist; Przemysława K Jarosz-Chobot; Dalė Marčiulionytė; Edna F Roche; Ulrike Rothe; Natasa Bratina; Constantin Ionescu-Tirgoviste; Ilse Weets; Mirjana Kocova; Valentino Cherubini; Natasa Rojnic Putarek; Carine E deBeaufort; Mira Samardzic; Anders Green Journal: Diabetologia Date: 2018-11-28 Impact factor: 10.122